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Edition #251

The Insight Labs Daily.

Thu · Sep 24 · 2026 ~7 min read
★ Lead Story
Sep 23 · 2 min read

India's consumer staples are trading where they traded in the first Covid crash

On 23 September, Business Standard put a number on something the FMCG desk has been feeling all year: the Nifty FMCG index is down close to 18% in 2026, against a 6.5% fall in the Nifty 50. The index is not lagging the market. It is falling nearly three times as fast.

The individual damage is worse than the index. ITC is down 34% and, because of its weight, has done most of the pulling. Godrej Consumer, Emami, Patanjali Foods, United Breweries and Dabur have each fallen somewhere between 23% and 29%.

Dabur tested ₹386 — its March 2020 low — and then went through it, touching ₹368 this month. HUL came within 4% of its own Covid bottom of ₹1,850. These are not distressed companies. Dabur and HUL both have national distribution, positive cash flow and no balance-sheet problem.

What broke was not the business. It was the multiple. Several years of flat earnings ran into share prices built for double-digit growth, and the market spent 2026 closing the gap.

The staples trade in India has always been sold as the defensive one. In a year when the Nifty itself is down, the defensive trade lost three times as much.

The uncomfortable part for anyone running an FMCG P&L is that the de-rating happened while volumes were broadly holding. Investors were not pricing a collapse in demand. They were re-pricing the belief that an Indian staples company automatically compounds earnings at low double digits because the country's population and incomes grow. That assumption carried a premium, and the premium is what is being taken out.

Two things ate the earnings line at once. Input costs rose through the year in edible oils and packaging, and the companies that chose to protect volume rather than margin — most of them, heading into the festive quarter — absorbed it. Meanwhile quick commerce and regional challenger brands have made shelf space cheaper to buy and harder to keep, so the distribution moat that justified the premium is doing less work than it did five years ago.

The caveat: index-level drawdowns say more about who owned the stock than about who buys the product. Foreign institutional money has been rotating out of Indian consumption for three quarters, and staples were the most crowded consensus position to exit. A stock can fall 30% on flows alone. The question worth watching over the next two quarters is whether earnings recover to meet the new price, or whether the new price was the honest one all along.

Today's Top 5

5 stories
Pine Labs · Sep 23

Mastercard has sold every share it owned in Pine Labs

Mastercard Asia/Pacific sold its entire 4.31% holding in Pine Labs on 22 September — 4.97 crore shares at ₹187.75 each, ₹933.5 crore in one bulk deal. Not a trim. The whole position.

The buyers were institutional and mostly Indian. ICICI Prudential Life took 93.1 lakh shares worth ₹174.8 crore, Societe Generale bought ₹164.65 crore, Citigroup Global Markets Singapore ₹125.2 crore.

Pine Labs listed less than a year ago, in November 2025. Alpha Wave sold almost its entire 3.11% stake for around ₹550 crore earlier this month. Actis moved ₹522 crore across two deals in June. Mastercard is the third exit, and the first by a strategic partner rather than a financial one.

A financial investor selling after listing is the system working as designed — that is what the IPO was for. A payments network selling its whole position in a merchant-acquiring business is a different signal, because Mastercard did not buy Pine Labs to make a return on the shares. It bought exposure to how Indian merchants accept money.

What has changed underneath is who owns that relationship. UPI now carries the overwhelming majority of Indian retail payment volume and it runs on rails Mastercard does not own or monetise. Holding equity in a terminal-and-software business does not buy a seat at that table, and the capital is worth more deployed somewhere the network still earns per transaction. The register keeps getting more domestic each time one of these blocks clears.

DailyObjects · Sep 22

A 14-year-old accessories brand is raising more money this week than in its entire life

DailyObjects is closing a round of about ₹350 crore led by Xponentia Capital and Anicut Capital's growth equity fund, at a valuation near ₹1,000 crore. The round mixes primary capital with a secondary sale.

The company was founded in 2012 by Pankaj Garg and Saurav Adlakha and has raised roughly $14.5 million in total across 14 years — from Seedfund, Unilazer, Roots Ventures, 360 One and Trifecta. This single round is more than twice everything before it.

The deal has also grown. In May the conversation was ₹300 crore with Xponentia alone. Anicut joining pushed it to ₹350 crore. The stated use is product range and distribution.

Fourteen years on $14.5 million means the business funded itself. That is unusual for an Indian D2C brand of this age, and it is the reason a growth fund rather than a venture fund is leading — the cheque is going into a company that already knows its unit economics, not one still discovering them.

The secondary component is the part worth reading. Early backers from 2012 and 2015 are getting liquidity, which resets the cap table before whatever comes next. A ₹1,000 crore valuation on a design-led phone-case-and-bag business is not a bet on more categories; it is a bet that distribution beyond its own website — general trade, large-format retail, marketplaces — can carry a brand that so far has mostly sold to people who came looking for it.

Ultraviolette · Sep 23

An Indian electric motorcycle maker raised $85 million and named America as the destination

Ultraviolette closed an $85 million round on 23 September, led by Yali Capital and TDK Ventures, with Walden International chairman Lip-Bu Tan participating alongside existing investors. That takes the Bengaluru company to $151 million raised since August 2025.

The money goes into scaling the F77 and X-47 motorcycles, plus the Tesseract scooter and the Shockwave enduro, and into the next generation of battery, power electronics and vehicle software.

It already sells in India and 20 European countries. The stated next markets are the United States in 2027, then Latin America and Southeast Asia.

TDK Ventures is the strategic name in the round. TDK makes batteries and electronic components, and an investor of that kind buys into a two-wheeler platform for the cells and power electronics, not the brand. That points at where Ultraviolette thinks its defensible part sits — and it is not the motorcycle.

The US line is the ambitious one. India's electric two-wheeler market is a commuting market; America's is a recreational one, where the competition is priced and positioned closer to a premium sports bike than a scooter replacement. Entering it needs homologation, a dealer and service network, and a warranty promise on a battery in a country that litigates. Announcing 2027 gives them two years to build all three, and the $85 million is what buys the time.

MathCo · Sep 23

An AI services firm grew 24% and kept almost none of it

MathCo's revenue from operations rose to ₹621 crore in FY26 from ₹502 crore, a 23.7% increase, per filings with the Registrar of Companies. Profit after tax fell to ₹3.83 crore from ₹63.7 crore — a 94% drop.

Expenses rose 41.4% to ₹628 crore while revenue rose 23.7%. Salaries did most of it: ₹497 crore, up 33%, and roughly 80% of everything the company spent.

The resulting ratios are stark. EBITDA margin of 1.81%, return on capital employed of −2.78%, and ₹1.01 of cost for every rupee of operating revenue earned.

MathCo's FY25 was the mirror image — flat revenue, profit up sharply. FY26 reversed both halves at once. Read together, the two years describe a company that can hold headcount and earn, or hire and grow, but has not yet done both in the same twelve months.

That is the structural problem with selling AI and analytics as a service. The output is billed by project but the capability is carried as payroll, and skilled data and ML people repriced upward faster than client budgets did. Spending ₹1.01 to earn ₹1.00 is not a crisis at ₹493 crore of current assets, but it does mean this year's growth was bought rather than earned — and only ₹14.9 crore of that current-asset pile is actual cash.

Auxilo · Sep 22

An education lender grew revenue 28% and profit by four crore

Auxilo, the Mumbai NBFC that lends to students going abroad, reported ₹676 crore of operating revenue in FY26 against ₹528 crore in FY25. Profit after tax moved from ₹112 crore to ₹117 crore.

Interest income did the growing — ₹610 crore, up 28%. Fee and commission income went the other way, down 13% to ₹32.4 crore.

The cost side moved faster than the top line. Finance costs rose 36% to ₹384.7 crore, employee expenses jumped 47% to ₹82.5 crore, and total expenditure rose 35% to ₹533 crore.

For a lender, finance cost rising faster than interest income is the whole story in one line: Auxilo is paying more for money than it is managing to charge for it. The book grew 28% and the spread on that book compressed, which is what a 4% profit increase on 28% revenue growth actually means.

The 47% jump in employee expense and the 13% fall in fee income suggest a build-out — more people sourcing loans directly instead of paying channel partners for them. That trades a variable cost for a fixed one, which is the right move if the book keeps compounding and an expensive one if it does not. Cash and bank balances fell to ₹412 crore from ₹544 crore over the year, so the next chapter depends on funding costs easing rather than on originations.

⚡ 30-Second Scan

RPS Ventures sold 0.83% of Meesho for ₹900 crore through block deals on 23 September — another early backer taking money off an Indian consumer-internet listing while institutional buyers absorb it.
PayGlocal has an in-principle approval from IFSCA to set up a payment service provider inside GIFT City, giving the cross-border payments firm a regulated base for foreign-currency flows outside the domestic RBI perimeter.
TimBuckDo raised a bridge round at a ₹120 crore valuation — the on-demand convenience platform taking interim capital rather than pricing a full round in a market that has turned selective about delivery businesses.

Sourced from public reporting; analysis by The Insight Labs.

Sources: Business Standard, Entrackr, Indian Retailer.

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