Oil crossed $90 the week India's festive quarter begins
Crude moved past $90 a barrel overnight after fighting between the United States and Iran resumed and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut to normal traffic. Indian benchmarks slipped about 0.4 per cent on Monday; the Dow lost 370 points.
India imports more than 85 per cent of its crude. When oil holds above $90, the bill surfaces in the three places consumers see first — the fuel pump, the air fare, and freight-linked prices on everything that moves by road.
The timing is the harder part. The festive quarter, which decides the year for autos, electronics and apparel, opens this month with input costs rising instead of easing.
The second-order effect lands on the FMCG margin line. Crude derivatives feed plastic packaging, paints and personal-care inputs, and most consumer companies set their festive price points weeks ago. If $90 holds, the choice is absorb the cost through the biggest quarter or reprice mid-season — both expensive.
The offset sits with the government. Excise cuts can shield pump prices for a while, and oil marketing companies have carried losses before. The number to watch is not petrol but aviation turbine fuel and diesel freight rates, which pass through to fares and shelf prices with little political friction.